Missoula Real Estate Trends : April 2013

Missoula Real Estate Market Overview:

Through the end of April, there was still a low supply of residential homes for sale in the Missoula market. With 349 active residential listings at the end of April there were only 10 additional active listings than there were at the end of March. However, despite the low inventory for several months in a row, Missoula’s sales each month have either matched or trended to a higher level than we have seen in the last five years. Residential home sales for both the month of April and YTD April were higher than sales for the same time period since 2008. As we have mentioned before, under contract numbers can be an indicator of a rebounding Missoula real estate market. At the end of April, there were 208 residential homes under contract. This is the highest number of properties under contract we have seen at the end of any given month in the last five years. Under contract figures remained strong throughout the winter and have been climbing since the beginning of the year, despite low inventory.

Buyer Recommendation: Take advantage of low interest rates and be prepared to pay approximately 95% of asking price. With a shortage of inventory, sellers who have their homes competitively priced are sometimes entertaining multiple offers and getting very close to asking price. Prior to beginning, or resuming, your search, we recommend that you be prepared with a loan pre-approval letter and ready to look at the good homes immediately to avoid possible multiple offer situations.

Seller Recommendation:  Inventory is so low right now that we recommend putting/keeping your home on the market. Buyers currently have limited options, creating the possibility of getting an offer close to asking price now that supply is not quite meeting demand. However, while it seems that average sold prices could increase a little throughout spring it is still very important to price your home reasonably and competitively as the seasonal influx of new listings hit the market in-step with the warmer weather. There will likely be increased competition which could hold some homes back from selling if they are

Supply and Demand

The health of the Missoula real estate market is recorded by absorption rates, which is the correlation between the number of active homes on the market and the number that sell per month, on average.  According to the National Association of Realtors, a normal market is six months of inventory.

Overall, the Missoula market is performing better than a normal absorption rate. At an absorption rate of 4.6 months in April, the Missoula market is continuing the trend of the best absorption rates in five years.

Homes in the price range above the black line in the charts below indicate a seller’s market and homes priced below the black line indicate a buyer’s market. Prior to October 2012, Missoula’s absorption rate performed at a slower rate than that of a normal market but has been performing at a better rate ever since. As the market improves, look for consumer confidence in the higher priced homes to increase as a positive indication of overall market health.

Average Sales Price

Overall average sold price in April was $268,104, one of the highest average sold prices in the last several years. Listing inventory crept up only slightly in April and while average sold price has been increasing steadily since February, average sold prices are anticipated to increase as we enter the full swing of spring/summer.

 5 Year Missoula Real Estate Trend

Under Contract volume increased from 178 properties in March to 208 properties in April and, though sales dropped off for the winter season, home sales over the last several months either matched or outpaced most all of the last five years when compared to the same months in prior years. Watch for a greater percentage of under contracts turning into sales compared to previous years.

According to the Missoula MLS, 96 homes were sold in April this year, the most number of homes sold in any given month in the last 5 years – with the exception of May 2010 when 102 homes were sold that month and June 2012 when 97 homes were sold. The following chart provides a monthly snapshot of total homes sold since January 2009. (Green columns represent Under Contract properties for the current year.)

Full Missoula Real Estate Report

Information Provided by:
Jeremy Williams
Williams & Associates | Keller Williams Realty